Eurozone unemployment hits joint record low despite recession fears business live

From 52m ago 05.27 EST Eurozone unemployment dips to joint record low Unemployment in the eurozone has fallen unexpectedly to a joint record low, suggesting Europe’s jobs market remains strong despite the weak growth in the region. The jobless rate in the eurozone dipped to 6.4% last November, new data from Eurostat shows, down from 6.5% in October, matching the record low set in June. A year earlier, the unemployment rate was 6.7%. Economists had expected the eurozone unemployment rate to remain unchanged in November, after the economy shrank by 0.1% in the third quarter of last year. During November, eurozone unemployment dropped by around 99,000 in the eurozone, to 10.97m. In the wider European Union, the unemployment rate slipped to 5.9% in November 2023, from 6% in October. 📅 Eurozone Unemployment Rate beating the analyst' expectations at 6.4% to 6.5% forecasted.
Monitoring unemployment rates closely as a key economic indicator, their decline signals potential growth, while a persistent rise may pose challenges to overall economic health; a… pic.twitter.com/lqnPYuZrEi — Nova Peak Capital (@NovaPeakCapital) January 9, 2024 Falling unemployment should help workers find jobs and negotiate pay rises, which may deter the European Central Bank from considering cuts to interest rates soon (especially as inflation rose in December, to 2.9%). Eurozone inflation rises to 2.9% after increase in energy costs Read more
5m ago 06.14 EST Here’s Kamil Kovar, economist at Moody’s Analytics, on today’s eurozone jobless data: #eurozone #unemployment rate ticked down in November on higher employment and lower number of unemployed.
Hard to see any ongoing or lingering collapse here, suggesting that the labor market (and economy) will continue on recent stagnant path, rather than drop in recession. pic.twitter.com/Ky2oP3MUSK — Kamil Kovar (@CrisisStudent) January 9, 2024 That said, we don't believe this is sign of strength: number of unemployed increase in 3 our of last 5 months, so even after decline in November it is no lower than in spring. Same for employment.
And this data is horribly noisy, so things can easily be revised upwards... — Kamil Kovar (@CrisisStudent) January 9, 2024
32m ago 05.46 EST Despite the drop in unemployment in November, the eurozone still has a youth unemployment problem. There were 2.321 million young people (under the age of 25) unemployed across the euro area in November. That follows a drop of 54,000 compared with October, which brought the eurozone unemployment rate down to 14.5% in November, from 14.8% a month before. Compared with November 2022, youth unemployment actualy increased by 49,000 in the euro area.
37m ago 05.42 EST Today’s eurozone unemployment data underscore why the European Central Bank has no plans to start cutting interest rates any time soon, says Bloomberg, adding: Even amid the mild downturn, employers are struggling find staff, pushing wages higher and creating upside risks for inflation. Unemployment in the eurozone just fell to its lowest level ever https://t.co/2gYr1gpa8i pic.twitter.com/MLYwuM2iaJ — Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) January 9, 2024
52m ago 05.27 EST Eurozone unemployment dips to joint record low Unemployment in the eurozone has fallen unexpectedly to a joint record low, suggesting Europe’s jobs market remains strong despite the weak growth in the region. The jobless rate in the eurozone dipped to 6.4% last November, new data from Eurostat shows, down from 6.5% in October, matching the record low set in June. A year earlier, the unemployment rate was 6.7%. Economists had expected the eurozone unemployment rate to remain unchanged in November, after the economy shrank by 0.1% in the third quarter of last year. During November, eurozone unemployment dropped by around 99,000 in the eurozone, to 10.97m. In the wider European Union, the unemployment rate slipped to 5.9% in November 2023, from 6% in October. 📅 Eurozone Unemployment Rate beating the analyst' expectations at 6.4% to 6.5% forecasted.
Monitoring unemployment rates closely as a key economic indicator, their decline signals potential growth, while a persistent rise may pose challenges to overall economic health; a… pic.twitter.com/lqnPYuZrEi — Nova Peak Capital (@NovaPeakCapital) January 9, 2024 Falling unemployment should help workers find jobs and negotiate pay rises, which may deter the European Central Bank from considering cuts to interest rates soon (especially as inflation rose in December, to 2.9%). Eurozone inflation rises to 2.9% after increase in energy costs Read more
1h ago 05.02 EST German industrial output weaker than expected in November Germany’s economy has taken another hit, with industrial production unexpectedly falling in November, the sixth monthly decline in a row. German industrial output fell by 0.7% month-on-month in November, the federal statistics office says, extending the ongoing downturn at German factories. The production of capital goods decreased by 0.7%, while the production of intermediate goods fell by 0.5% and consumer goods output fell by 0.1%, statistics body Destatis says. Good Morning from #Germany where industry shrinks for 6th month in Nov as recession looms. Industrial production declined 0.7%, defying economists who’d predicted a 0.3% increase. German GDP probably contracted in Q4 2023. https://t.co/1gowiKdPyp pic.twitter.com/hupDHjVAyx — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) January 9, 2024 Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, fears there is very little reason for near-term optimism. The order book deflation of the last two years leaves clear marks as well as ongoing energy and policy uncertainty. With a soft or hard landing of the US economy and still very little positive growth momentum in China, external demand for German industrial production is likely to remain weak. The only upside could come from a turning of the inventory cycle. However, even though there are some very tentative signs of inventory reduction, it would still take until late spring before we could see a significant impact on actual production. Brzeski also fears that December is likely to bring more negative surprises, with the first signs of economic fallout from the government’s fiscal woes, disruptions in the Suez Canal and reportedly weak Christmas sales. He adds: All of this points to another small contraction in the fourth quarter, pushing the German economy into the first – admittedly very minor – technical recession since 2020.
1h ago 04.50 EST Hays has been hit by a recruitment slowdown in both the UK and globally, says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. And that is a concerning economic signal, Mould explains, after this morning’s warning that profits will be below expectations. “Recruitment stocks are often a good harbinger for the wider economy as companies are keen to hire when they’re feeling confident and tend to freeze recruitment when times are more uncertain. “In this sense a profit warning from Hays has wider significance. The speed of the deterioration in its outlook will be cause for particular concern. “The company’s problems look particularly acute in the UK – but with fees as a whole down 10% for the quarter and down an alarming 15% for December, this is a global issue too. “Hays is cutting its own cloth accordingly and as a cyclical business it is used to dealing with fluctuating fortunes. “The company may have to batten down the hatches for some time, but it will hope a pivot in interest rates and a reduction in inflationary pressures will eventually lead to an improvement in business confidence and help drive a recovery in hiring activity. “While this is out of the company’s control, levers it can pull include expanding its ‘enterprise client’ business which sees firms outsource their temporary and permanent white-collar recruitment to Hays. This could help increase the predictability of earnings.”
2h ago 03.55 EST City AM say it is “a worrying sign of the health of the UK economy” that recruitment giant Hays has been forced to lower its expectations after a difficult December. Recruitment giant Hays issues profit warning in worrying sign for the economy https://t.co/lQkm2H87Tn — Jack Mendel ✍️ (@Mendelpol) January 9, 2024
Updated at 03.55 EST
3h ago 03.37 EST Discount retailer B&M has reported a rise in UK revenues in the run-up to Christmas period. B&M’s UK like-for-like revenues rose by 3.7% in the 13 weeks from 24 September to 23 December, rather slower than in France where they grew by 11.3%, while its Heron Foods business grew by 11.7%. Alex Russo, chief executive, said, “The performance across the Golden Quarter has been pleasing, with strong operational execution across the three businesses. Our strategy remains unchanged - we are an everyday low-price discounter with a laser-focus in keeping excellence in retail standards and our costs the lowest. This allows us to provide our products at the best price to all customers – many of whom continue to face significant cost-of-living pressures. B&M has also announced a special dividend of 20p per share for investors. But despite this sweetener, its shares have dropped 0.6% this morning. Emma Carr, retail partner at law firm Gowling WLG, says: Despite a slowing in midway-year growth for this discount retailer, its last minute rebound in sales can doubtless be attributed to a rush in last-minute festive sales requirements where the retailer was able to step in and rapidly meet these needs. Of course, capitalising on this as we move into the New Year period will be key for the retailer, as it looks to utilise its traditionally well-focused supply chain capabilities to deliver against the fortunes of other more mainstream supermarket competitors.
3h ago 03.29 EST Hays shares slide after hiring slowdown warning Shares in Hays are down 12% in early trading in London, after it warned that the fall in fees will hits its profits. Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor, says: “Hays has issued a profit warning – it expects first half pre-exceptional operating profit of about £60 million, missing analysts’ expectations, sending shares sharply lower. In its second quarter trading statement it also said quarterly fees fell by 10%, hurt by weakness in December. But the recruiter said it is too early to tell whether this reflects a more sustained market slowdown. Shares in Hays plunged as much as 19% at one stage this morning and are still down by over 12%. Hiring of permanent staff tends to ebb and flow with the economic cycle. The sluggish global growth backdrop combined with tighter monetary policy has dampened business appetite to pile on additional fixed staffing costs. And while temporary workers typically pick up the slack, Hays said it didn’t see the ‘normal seasonal step-up in worker volumes’ dealing a double blow to the recruitment firm. Today’s slide reverses much of the rebound in the stock seen since the lows in October. Over a 12-month period shares are down by over a fifth.”
Updated at 03.29 EST
3h ago 03.02 EST Here’s a full breakdown of Hays’ trading in the last quarter of 2023, showing the “clear slowdown” in global markets: Germany: flat fees, or up 2% on a WDA basis. Temp & Contracting flat (up 2% WDA), with volumes down 1%, impacted by lower new sales YoY through the quarter. Perm fees flat YoY
UK & Ireland: fees down 17%, with Temp down 13% and Perm slowing through the quarter, down 21%
Australia & New Zealand: fees down 20%, with Temp down 16% and Perm slowing through the quarter, down 27%
Rest of World: fees down 11%. EMEA ex-Germany fees declined by 5%, with Asia down 11%. The Americas continued to be tough, down 25%
Updated at 03.03 EST

This data comes from MediaIntel.Asia's Media Intelligence and Media Monitoring Platform.